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王亚伟等明星私募首季表现不佳 3大因素导致净值回撤
2018-08-15 07:20 新浪基金综合
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  明星私募一季度表现不佳 三大因素导致净值回撤

  来源:证券时报 记者:许孝如

  A股的调整幅度不仅超出普通投资者的预期,也让不少知名私募陷入被动境地。截至今年2月底,千合资本、淡水泉等一批大型股票私募的业绩已开始由正转负,表现不佳。

  在中美贸易战和美股大跌的阴云下,近日A股再度开启下跌模式。有私募表示,对于大型股票私募而言无疑雪上加霜,不少产品遭遇业绩压力。

  首季普遍亏损

  据格上理财数据统计,2月份私募行业平均收益为-3.17%,其中股票策略私募平均收益为-3.94%,全月仅有20%的产品获得正收益,不少私募基金净值出现大幅回撤,其中10亿规模以上的私募2月份平均收益为-4.28%。

  今年以来,大型股票私募的业绩普遍不佳。截至2月底,已有不少知名私募的产品收益开始由正转负,千合资本、淡水泉投资、星石投资、从容投资、朱雀投资、赤子之心等知名私募平均亏损均超过2%。

  统计数据显示,王亚伟旗下的千合资本在2月份净值遭遇较大回撤,其中一只产品净值回撤甚至达到13.66%,旗下基金今年以来平均亏损5.25%。从披露的年报数据来看,王亚伟在去年四季度做出了较大的调仓换股,旗下的昀沣9号以300万股的持股数成为金种子酒的第九大流通股东。然而,年初以来金种子酒却大跌16.91%,如果王亚伟没卖出股票,账面或已出现较大浮亏。同时,王亚伟对同有科技进行减持,目前昀沣4号已退出前十大流通股东之列,而宽星6号继续持有200万股。

  此外,今年来,赵军的淡水泉投资整体亏损达到3.38%;赵丹阳旗下的赤子之心在2月份亦表现不佳,整体亏损2.51%。

  “3月份的私募产品数据现在还没出来,但指数已跌近4%,原则上大多数私募应该难以跑赢指数。因蓝筹股的跌幅较大,多数大型私募的持仓结构没有转换,所以他们的亏损幅度或超出市场预期,一些产品或面临清盘压力。”上海某私募负责人告诉记者。

  值得注意的是,虽然股票私募表现不佳,但阿尔法策略今年上演翻身仗,2018年收益为1.10%,在私募所有策略中排名第一,其中绩优产品今年以来收益超过5%。

  三大因素致业绩不佳

  西藏隆源投资总经理杨巍表示,大型股票私募今年来整体业绩不佳,主要有三大原因:第一,核心策略过于拥挤。“买入持有策略”在过去两年的蓝筹股牛市中让大多数股票型私募赚的盆满钵满,所以今年来多数大型股票私募继续将其作为核心策略,且仓位普遍过高,低估了投资策略阶段性的失效风险。

  第二,在一定程度上低估了基本面风险。对经济短周期转弱和外围市场超预期冲击等风险变量未能充分识别,导致过大的多头敞口难以抵御风险事件所带来的大幅杀跌,例如,中美贸易争端激化、美股连涨8年所累积的局部估值泡沫、以及美联储加息可能超预期等诸多风险都未被市场充分的“price in”。尽管我们对中长期中国经济和股票市场充满希望,但是中短期的压力测试仍然需要审慎应对。

  第三,对市场风格转换预估不足。国内稳经济的政策导向有所调整,即政府支持2.0版本的创新驱动,“独角兽”概念和新经济的兴起使得以创业板为代表的新兴成长股板块逆势上涨,而大型私募的持仓却过于集中偏周期的蓝筹股,在存量资金博弈的市场里,部分资金开始逐渐进入估值相对合理的有创新逻辑的热门行业,例如生物医药、工业互联网等新兴板块,导致相当部分的大型股票私募基金的业绩表现低于预期。

  此外,无法实现有效对冲,也是大型私募业绩快速下滑的一大因素。“所谓船大难掉头。由于期指开仓一定程度受限,大型私募的重仓股在大幅下跌时难以抛出,又无法有效利用期指进行对冲,而中小私募就会相对灵活很多。”深圳某私募表示。

  与此同时,已有大型私募开始关注风格转换。星石投资首席执行官杨玲认为A股长期是靠业绩驱动,短期是靠风险偏好来驱动的。最近的市场风格可能从价值转向价值成长,也就是所谓的“新蓝筹”。今年和明年,他们将更为关注之前调整比较多的、有实际业绩支撑的成长股。

责任编辑:石秀珍 SF183

私募 明星私募 净值

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